Pastime of the week for this particular part of the summer silly
season - at least, among those who are quite finished scrambling to
come to terms with the fact that E3 has gone to the great convention
centre in the sky - seems to be coming up with new and interesting
ways to cast doubt upon Sony's prospects in the next generation
console race. Fanboy arguments supported by misconception and
exaggeration abound - and that's just in the mainstream media and
among analysts. What's going on on Internet forums makes even less
sense.
Sony only has itself to blame for this, of course, and we can't say
that our hearts are bleeding with sympathy for the Japanese giant.
The arrogance displayed by SCE boss Ken Kutaragi and his US right
hand man Kaz Hirai every time they open their mouths on the topic of
the PS3 can be explained by their success in dominating the last
generation with PS2, but that certainly doesn't justify it - and the
genial manner of the firm's studio boss Phil Harrison can only go so
far in terms of repairing the damage done to the firm's image by his
overbearing bosses.
However, even if Sony is failing to endear itself to the media, to
analysts or to gamers at the moment, that's no reason for the
reality of the next generation console battle to be ignored. Judging
from reports in the past fortnight, it would be easy for an outside
observer to assume that it's all over already; the media paints a
picture of Microsoft being victorious before the first shot is even
fired, with Sony's overloaded battlecruiser set to sink before it
even leaves port.
The fact is that there's little evidence to support that assertion.
Even if Microsoft reaches its 10 million unit target by the end of
the year - which does look likely - that's still not a lead that
guarantees dominance in a market where the top-selling console last
time (the PlayStation 2) sold over 100 million units. Both Sony and
Nintendo are planning to ship their new consoles at such a rate that
they could, in theory, have caught up or passed out Microsoft by the
end of 2007; a scenario which is not exactly likely, admittedly, but
certainly not impossible either.
Equally certain is that Sony's price point will dissuade some
consumers - but a host of factors could conspire to outweigh that
price point. If Sony has software with massive appeal to the mass
market - something which Microsoft will still lack even coming into
2007, with the resolutely hardcore Gears of War being its key title
for Christmas - or better again, if Blu-Ray really does prove to be
as popular with consumers as movie bosses seem to believe, then the
price point could prove inconsequential, at least for the first ten
million units to pass through the channel.
This is quite an optimistic way of viewing Sony's chances, of course
- but it's worth balancing out some of the pessimism which has been
doing the rounds so often that it almost seems to be accepted as
fact in some quarters. Much of this, it's clear, is influenced
heavily by the American dominance of English-language media.
Microsoft is so hugely successful in America relative to other
territories that it can skew the global perspective; whereas the
Xbox 360 has sold 3.3 million units in North America, it has sold
only 1.3 million in Europe and just 400,000 elsewhere, making it
fair to say that North America is still the only territory where the
Xbox 360 has seen major success.
However, to listen to the media you would think that the success of
the console has been replicated everywhere - which is simply not the
case. North America is unquestionably a very important market, but
Europe is expected to overtake it in size terms in the coming years,
and despite the waning importance of Japan, it is still a key market
- and other Asian territories are growing in importance. Microsoft
is, in a sense, picking up the easiest consumers first. It is
converting Xbox customers into Xbox 360 customers, and playing to a
highly receptive home crowd - which suggests that the second ten
million will be a lot more difficult than the first, because it will
have to expand its reach not only demographically, but
internationally.
That's where Sony already has the advantage; the PlayStation brand
is synonymous with gaming around the world and across a huge
demographic, not just in North America and with a narrow range of
players. When reading the various reports which seem to imply that
Sony has already failed or that victory is in the bag for Microsoft,
it's important to remember that. Microsoft's use of first mover
advantage has certainly been more impressive than many observers
expected, but come November, the firm will still only have its home
crowd in the bag. 2006, and even 2007, are only a warm-up - the
battle for hearts and minds among casual gamers, international
markets and wider demographics hasn't even begun yet.
(Gamesindustry.biz)
This month's Games feature is a combined travel and event
report where we visited the Develop in Brighton Conference.
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Mstation Games Review
Sat, 02 Sep 2006
